Botafogo 1–1 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Botafogo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Paranaense

Bastos 90+8'

G. Mastriani 53'

6/19/2024

Serie A · Round 10Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Botafogo45%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.93

Botafogo

1.31

Atletico Paranaense

0.93

Botafogo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

1.46

creates per match

0.93

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Botafogo

1.46

Atletico Paranaense

0.93

allows per match

Botafogo

0.93

Atletico Paranaense

1.17

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.36scores more

Atletico Paranaense+0.07on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

73%

Botafogo or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

55%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

21%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

73%

Botafogo 2+ goals

38%

Botafogo 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

24%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

63%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 39 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.17 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.46 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.93 + Botafogo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botafogo scores more

45%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

27%

Botafogo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Bastos

Botafogo · D

8.3

Match Events

42'

Erick

53'

G. Mastriani↳ T. Cuello

57'

Luiz Henrique← Danilo Barbosa

69'

69'

72'

76'

77'

81'

D. Hernández← Eduardo

81'

Gregore← Marlon Freitas

82'

M. Gamarra← L. Esquivel

82'

85'

90'

90'

90'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoAtletico

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots16

0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.48

5Corners9

13Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots16

1On Target6

7Off Target5

0Blocked5

4Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

508Total Passes311

440Accurate Passes255

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

-0.64Goals Prevented-0.64

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2