Botafogo U17 1–2 Sao Paulo U17: Result & Stats

Botafogo U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sao Paulo U17

Samuel 59'

N. Kauan 86'

Pablo 63'

8/6/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Botafogo U1742%

×Draw22%

Sao Paulo U1736%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo U17Expected goals in this matchSao Paulo U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.66

Botafogo U17

1.81

Sao Paulo U17

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

2.33

creates per match

1.59

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Botafogo U17

2.33

Sao Paulo U17

1.59

allows per match

Botafogo U17

1.72

Sao Paulo U17

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw

64%

Botafogo U17 or Sao Paulo U17

78%

Draw or Sao Paulo U17

58%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+

22%

Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals

84%

Botafogo U17 2+ goals

54%

Botafogo U17 3+ goals

27%

Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals

81%

Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals

49%

Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)

54%

Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more

42%

level

22%

Sao Paulo U17 scores more

36%

Botafogo U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Samuel

63'

Pablo

86'

N. Kauan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff