Botafogo U17 1–2 Santos U17: Result & Stats

Botafogo U17

FT

1 – 2

Santos U17

7/3/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 1Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo U1749%

×Draw21%

Santos U1730%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo U17Expected goals in this matchSantos U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.55

Botafogo U17

2.04

Santos U17

1.55

Botafogo U17 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

2.33

creates per match

1.38

1.72

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Botafogo U17

2.33

Santos U17

1.38

allows per match

Botafogo U17

1.72

Santos U17

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Santos U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Santos U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw

70%

Botafogo U17 or Santos U17

79%

Draw or Santos U17

51%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+

28%

Santos U17 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals

87%

Botafogo U17 2+ goals

60%

Botafogo U17 3+ goals

33%

Santos U17 1+ goals

79%

Santos U17 2+ goals

46%

Santos U17 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)

62%

Santos U17 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Santos U17 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Santos U17 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Santos U17 attack 1.38 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more

49%

level

21%

Santos U17 scores more

30%

Botafogo U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff