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Botafogo U17 vs RB Bragantino U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
RB Bragantino U17
RB Bragantino U17
Caique 81'
P. Henrique do Nascimento 70'
8/20/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 15Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo U1741%
×Draw21%
RB Bragantino U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U17
1.94
RB Bragantino U17
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Botafogo U17
2.33
RB Bragantino U17
1.95

allows per match

Botafogo U17
1.72
RB Bragantino U17
1.55

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par
RB Bragantino U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

RB Bragantino U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw
63%
Botafogo U17 or RB Bragantino U17
79%
Draw or RB Bragantino U17
59%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
22%
RB Bragantino U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals
86%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
58%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
30%
RB Bragantino U17 1+ goals
84%
RB Bragantino U17 2+ goals
54%
RB Bragantino U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
53%
RB Bragantino U17 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

RB Bragantino U17 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + RB Bragantino U17 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

RB Bragantino U17 attack 1.95 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more
41%
level
21%
RB Bragantino U17 scores more
37%

Botafogo U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
P. Henrique do Nascimento
81'
Caique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Botafogo U17 0–2 RB Bragantino U17

RB Bragantino U17 beat Botafogo U17 2-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 20, 2025.

Goals: P. Henrique do Nascimento (70'), Caique (81').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.