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Botafogo U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
7/14/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo U1758%
×Draw20%
Fortaleza U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U17
2.20
Fortaleza U17
1.27

Botafogo U17 creates 73% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Botafogo U17
2.33
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

Botafogo U17
1.72
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw
79%
Botafogo U17 or Fortaleza U17
80%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
42%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
36%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals
89%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
64%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
37%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
72%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
36%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
73%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.20

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more
58%
level
20%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
21%

Botafogo U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Botafogo U17 6–3 Fortaleza U17

Botafogo U17 beat Fortaleza U17 6-3 in Brasileiro U17 on July 14, 2026.