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Botafogo U17 vs Fluminense U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fluminense U17
Fluminense U17
Samuel 34'
J. Pedro 42'
9/3/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 17Centro de Formação de Atletas TROPS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo U1745%
×Draw22%
Fluminense U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U17
1.92
Fluminense U17
1.61

Botafogo U17 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Botafogo U17
2.33
Fluminense U17
1.50

allows per match

Botafogo U17
1.72
Fluminense U17
1.50

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par
Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw
67%
Botafogo U17 or Fluminense U17
78%
Draw or Fluminense U17
55%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
25%
Fluminense U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals
85%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
57%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
30%
Fluminense U17 1+ goals
80%
Fluminense U17 2+ goals
48%
Fluminense U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
58%
Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more
45%
level
22%
Fluminense U17 scores more
33%

Botafogo U17 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Samuel
42'
J. Pedro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo U17 vs Fluminense U17

Botafogo U17 and Fluminense U17 drew 1-1 in Brasileiro U17 on September 3, 2025.

Goals: Samuel (34'), J. Pedro (42').

The match was played at Centro de Formação de Atletas TROPS in Várzea das Moças Niterói, Rio de Janeiro.