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Botafogo U17 vs Cuiaba U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Cuiaba U17
Cuiaba U17
M. Caetano 89'
Samuel 68', 49', 2'
Juninho 59'
Miguel Caldas 37', 27'
Pedro Paulo 25'
6/11/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 5Nilton Santos Campo Anexo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botafogo U1763%
×Draw19%
Cuiaba U1718%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U17
2.37
Cuiaba U17
1.20

Botafogo U17 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Botafogo U17
2.33
Cuiaba U17
0.67

allows per match

Botafogo U17
1.72
Cuiaba U17
2.40

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par
Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw
82%
Botafogo U17 or Cuiaba U17
81%
Draw or Cuiaba U17
37%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
41%
Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals
91%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
68%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
42%
Cuiaba U17 1+ goals
70%
Cuiaba U17 2+ goals
34%
Cuiaba U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
78%
Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Cuiaba U17 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Cuiaba U17 attack 0.67 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more
63%
level
19%
Cuiaba U17 scores more
18%

Botafogo U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Samuel
25'
Pedro Paulo
27'
Miguel Caldas
37'
Miguel Caldas
49'
Samuel
59'
Juninho
68'
Samuel
89'
M. Caetano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo U17 vs Cuiaba U17

Botafogo U17 beat Cuiaba U17 8-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 11, 2025.

Goals: Samuel (2', 49', 68'), Pedro Paulo (25'), Miguel Caldas (27', 37'), Juninho (59'), M. Caetano (89').

The match was played at Nilton Santos Campo Anexo in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.