Botafogo SP 2–1 Vitoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vitoria

Matheus Ferreira 70'

Judivan 1'

J. Caicedo 86'

10/25/2020

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Botafogo SP38%

×Draw30%

Vitoria32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchVitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.98

Botafogo SP

1.09

Vitoria

0.98

Botafogo SP creates 11% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 59 away

0.94

creates per match

0.98

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Botafogo SP

0.94

Vitoria

0.98

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.98

Vitoria

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Vitoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

68%

Botafogo SP or Vitoria

70%

Draw or Vitoria

62%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

15%

Vitoria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

66%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

30%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

10%

Vitoria 1+ goals

62%

Vitoria 2+ goals

26%

Vitoria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

54%

Vitoria (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

Vitoria away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 0.94 + Vitoria defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Vitoria attack 0.98 + Botafogo SP defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

38%

level

30%

Vitoria scores more

32%

Botafogo SP at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Valdemir

Botafogo SP · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Victor Bolt

1'

Judivan↳ Valdemir

18'

Vico← Juninho Quixadá

37'

44'

46'

46'

46'

46'

Júnior Viçosa← Ewandro

69'

Lucas← Ronald

69'

Léo← Leandro Silva

70'

Matheus Ferreira↳ Valdemir

75'

J. Caicedo← Léo Ceará

75'

Mateus Jesus← Gerson Magrão

78'

Murilo Oliveira← Judivan

78'

Walisson← Matheus Ferreira

81'

Edson Junior← Elicarlos

86'

J. Caicedo↳ Léo

87'

Edson Silva

90'

Walisson Maia

90'

Mateusinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoVitoria

Overview

30%Possession70%

12Total Shots14

8Corners7

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target4

7Off Target8

1Blocked2

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

30%Possession70%

211Total Passes514

137Accurate Passes450

65%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1