Botafogo SP 0–1 Santos: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santos

Giuliano 41'

9/20/2024

Serie B · Round 27Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Botafogo SP39%

×Draw32%

Santos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.86

Botafogo SP

1.04

Santos

0.86

Botafogo SP creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

1.21

creates per match

0.79

0.93

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.21

Santos

0.79

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.93

Santos

0.88

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.20scores more

Santos+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

71%

Botafogo SP or Santos

68%

Draw or Santos

61%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

15%

Santos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

65%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

28%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

9%

Santos 1+ goals

58%

Santos 2+ goals

21%

Santos 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

57%

Santos (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

Santos away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.88 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.21 + Santos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Santos attack 0.79 + Botafogo SP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

39%

level

32%

Santos scores more

29%

Botafogo SP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Giuliano

Santos · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Sabit Abdulai

41'

Giuliano

68'

Pedrinho← I. Laquintana

68'

Rodrigo Ferreira← João Pedro Chermont

73'

Rodrigo Ferreira

74'

Ronald Camarão← Emerson Negueba

75'

Jean Victor← Patrick Brey

78'

Diego Pituca

82'

Gustavo Bochecha← João Costa

82'

Willian← Giuliano

82'

T. Rincón← Diego Pituca

83'

Fábio Sanches

88'

João Schmidt

88'

Felipinho← Douglas Baggio

90+4'

Victor Andrade

90'

Sandry← João Schmidt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoSantos

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots11

0.82Expected Goals (xG)0.81

4Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

1On Target3

10Off Target6

5Blocked2

5Inside Box6

11Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

413Total Passes555

338Accurate Passes467

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4