Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botafogo SP vs Fortaleza EC — Serie B 2026

Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
Everton Morelli 52', 38'
Vilar 45'
Hygor 34'
3/21/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 1Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Botafogo SP42%
×Draw28%
Fortaleza EC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP
1.27
Fortaleza EC
1.02

Botafogo SP creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP
1.27
Fortaleza EC
1.06

allows per match

Botafogo SP
0.97
Fortaleza EC
1.26

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more
Fortaleza EC-0.56scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw
70%
Botafogo SP or Fortaleza EC
72%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
58%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+
19%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals
72%
Botafogo SP 2+ goals
36%
Botafogo SP 3+ goals
14%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
27%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)
59%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Fortaleza EC attack 1.06 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botafogo SP scores more
42%
level
28%
Fortaleza EC scores more
30%

Botafogo SP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Everton MorelliBotafogo SPBotafogo SP · M
9.3

Match Events

34'
Hygor↳ Everton Morelli
38'
Everton Morelli
40'
Everton Morelli
43'
Luiz Fernando
45'
Vilar↳ Patrick Brey
46'
Lucas Crispim← Rodrigo
46'
Lucca Prior← T. Pochettino
46'
Welliton← Vitinho
52'
Everton Morelli↳ Rafael Gava
61'
Lucas Gazal
63'
Matheus Sales← Everton Morelli
66'
Paulo Baya← J. B. Miritello
73'
Lucas Crispim
73'
Felipe Vieira← Patrick Brey
73'
Thiago Moraes← Rafael Gava
80'
Lucas Sasha
82'
Ryan← Lucas Sasha
88'
Maílton
89'
Maílton
90+5'
Felipe Vieira
90+2'
Jefferson Nem← Kelvin
90+2'
Marquinho← L. Maciel

Statistics

BotafogoFortaleza
Overview
2.52Expected Goals (xG)0.24
Goalkeeping
-1.44Goals Prevented-1.44

Match Recap: Botafogo SP vs Fortaleza EC

Botafogo SP beat Fortaleza EC 4-0 in Serie B on March 21, 2026.

Goals: Hygor (34'), Everton Morelli (38', 52'), Vilar (45').

The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz in Ribeirão Preto.