Botafogo SP 0–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coritiba

6/5/2025

Serie B · Round 11Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Botafogo SP46%

×Draw27%

Coritiba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Botafogo SP

1.39

Coritiba

1.00

Botafogo SP creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.27

Coritiba

1.03

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.97

Coritiba

1.50

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more

Coritiba-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

73%

Botafogo SP or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

54%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

22%

Coritiba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

75%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

40%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

16%

Coritiba 1+ goals

63%

Coritiba 2+ goals

26%

Coritiba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

63%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + Coritiba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Coritiba attack 1.03 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

46%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

27%

Botafogo SP at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Lucas Ronier

Coritiba · M

7.9

Match Events

50'

Gabriel Bispo

57'

Leandro Maciel

58'

Iury Castilho← Geovane

60'

Alex Silva

65'

Jacy← Filipe Machado

65'

Wallisson← Vini Paulista

73'

Robinho← Matheus Regis

76'

C. de Pena← Josue

76'

Dellatorre← Gustavo Coutinho

81'

A. Dramisino← Jonathan Cafu

81'

R. Carrillo← L. Maciel

90+3'

Wallisson Luiz

90+1'

Zeca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoCoritiba

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots8

3Corners8

14Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots8

3On Target3

4Off Target4

0Blocked1

2Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

361Total Passes553

294Accurate Passes475

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0