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Botafogo SP U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
Gui Said 70'
8/30/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 3Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Botafogo SP U2050%
×Draw23%
XV de Jaú U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
1.79
XV de Jaú U20
1.24

Botafogo SP U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
73%
Botafogo SP U20 or XV de Jaú U20
77%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
50%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
28%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
83%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
53%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
26%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
71%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
35%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
65%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
27%

Botafogo SP U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Gui Said

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Botafogo SP U20 0–1 XV de Jaú U20

XV de Jaú U20 beat Botafogo SP U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 30, 2024.

Goals: Gui Said (70').

The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.