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Botafogo SP U20 vs São Bento U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
São Bento U20
São Bento U20
Caua Lucas 90+9'
Unknown 45+2' (OG)
6/11/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Botafogo SP U2064%
×Draw19%
São Bento U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
2.26
São Bento U20
1.05

Botafogo SP U20 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
São Bento U20
1.19

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
São Bento U20
2.05

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
São Bento U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

São Bento U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
84%
Botafogo SP U20 or São Bento U20
81%
Draw or São Bento U20
36%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
41%
São Bento U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
89%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
66%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
39%
São Bento U20 1+ goals
65%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
28%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
80%
São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

São Bento U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + São Bento U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.26

São Bento U20 attack 1.19 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
64%
level
19%
São Bento U20 scores more
16%

Botafogo SP U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
Own goal
90+9'
Caua Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Botafogo SP U20 1–1 São Bento U20

Botafogo SP U20 and São Bento U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 11, 2025.

Goals: ? (45+2' o.g.), Caua Lucas (90+9').

The match was played at Arena NicNet in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.