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Botafogo SP U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
I. Morais 81', 65'
Felipe Penha 44'
Caua Lucas 16'
Robert Lopes 90'
7/26/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Botafogo SP U2052%
×Draw23%
Corinthians U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
1.84
Corinthians U20
1.19

Botafogo SP U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
75%
Botafogo SP U20 or Corinthians U20
77%
Draw or Corinthians U20
48%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
29%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
84%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
55%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
28%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
70%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
33%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
52%
level
23%
Corinthians U20 scores more
25%

Botafogo SP U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Caua Lucas
44'
Felipe Penha
65'
I. Morais
81'
I. Morais
90'
Robert Lopes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Botafogo SP U20 4–1 Corinthians U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat Corinthians U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: Caua Lucas (16'), Felipe Penha (44'), I. Morais (65', 81'), Robert Lopes (90').

The match was played at Arena NicNet in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.