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Botafogo SP U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Botafogo SP U20
Botafogo SP U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
Pedro Severino 75'
Tortello 45+2' (pen), 38'
Rafael 30'
Thalles 22', 4'
Erik Rebello 20'
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo SP U2065%
×Draw19%
Bandeirante U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo SP U20
2.21
Bandeirante U20
0.96

Botafogo SP U20 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20
2.48
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20
0.92
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw
85%
Botafogo SP U20 or Bandeirante U20
81%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
35%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+
42%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals
89%
Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals
65%
Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals
38%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
62%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
25%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.21

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more
65%
level
19%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
15%

Botafogo SP U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Thalles
20'
Erik Rebello
22'
Thalles
30'
Rafael
38'
Tortello
45+2'
TortelloPenalty
75'
Pedro Severino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo SP U20 vs Bandeirante U20

Botafogo SP U20 beat Bandeirante U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

Goals: Thalles (4', 22'), Erik Rebello (20'), Rafael (30'), Tortello (38', 45+2' pen), Pedro Severino (75').

The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.