Botafogo SP U20 5–1 Água Santa U20: Result & Stats

Botafogo SP U20

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Água Santa U20

Caua Aniceto 80'

G. Dotta 76'

Felipe Penha 55'

Caua Lucas 52'

R. A. Ferreira 20'

L. Azevedo 28'

7/19/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Arena NicNet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Botafogo SP U2064%

×Draw19%

Água Santa U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SP U20Expected goals in this matchÁgua Santa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.05

Botafogo SP U20

2.24

Água Santa U20

1.05

Botafogo SP U20 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.48

creates per match

1.19

0.92

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Botafogo SP U20

2.48

Água Santa U20

1.19

allows per match

Botafogo SP U20

0.92

Água Santa U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Botafogo SP U20 or draw

83%

Botafogo SP U20 or Água Santa U20

81%

Draw or Água Santa U20

36%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

41%

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

89%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

65%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

38%

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

65%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

28%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP U20 at home — creates 2.48, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP U20 attack 2.48 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

64%

level

19%

Água Santa U20 scores more

17%

Botafogo SP U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. A. Ferreira

28'

L. Azevedo

52'

Caua Lucas

55'

Felipe Penha

76'

G. Dotta

80'

Caua Aniceto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff