Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botafogo PB vs Treze — Serie C 2018

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Treze
Treze
12/5/2020Serie CSerie C · Round 18Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo PB52%
×Draw25%
Treze23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.58
Treze
0.96

Botafogo PB creates 65% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 18 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.49
Treze
1.06

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.86
Treze
1.67

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Treze+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Treze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
77%
Botafogo PB or Treze
75%
Draw or Treze
48%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
27%
Treze wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
79%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
47%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
21%
Treze 1+ goals
62%
Treze 2+ goals
25%
Treze 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
69%
Treze (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Treze away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.49 + Treze defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Treze attack 1.06 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
52%
level
25%
Treze scores more
23%

Botafogo PB at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo PB vs Treze

Botafogo PB and Treze drew 1-1 in Serie C on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.