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Botafogo PB vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
9/5/2021Serie CSerie C · Round 15Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Botafogo PB51%
×Draw28%
Tombense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.39
Tombense
0.80

Botafogo PB creates 74% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 59 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.49
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.86
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
78%
Botafogo PB or Tombense
72%
Draw or Tombense
49%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
25%
Tombense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
75%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
40%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
16%
Tombense 1+ goals
55%
Tombense 2+ goals
19%
Tombense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
70%
Tombense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.49 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tombense attack 0.75 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
51%
level
28%
Tombense scores more
22%

Botafogo PB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Botafogo PB 1–1 Tombense

Botafogo PB and Tombense drew 1-1 in Serie C on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.