Botafogo PB 3–0 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie C

Botafogo PB

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Remo

Henrique Dourado 77' (pen)

Dudu 65'

Joãozinho 54'

10/5/2024

Serie C · Promotion Round - 6Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Botafogo PB48%

×Draw28%

Remo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo PBExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.88

Botafogo PB

1.35

Remo

0.88

Botafogo PB creates 53% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 64 away

1.48

creates per match

0.89

0.86

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Botafogo PB

1.48

Remo

0.89

allows per match

Botafogo PB

0.86

Remo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw

76%

Botafogo PB or Remo

72%

Draw or Remo

52%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

23%

Remo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

74%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

39%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

15%

Remo 1+ goals

59%

Remo 2+ goals

22%

Remo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

66%

Remo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.86 · 92 matches

Remo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.48 + Remo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Remo attack 0.89 + Botafogo PB defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botafogo PB scores more

48%

level

28%

Remo scores more

24%

Botafogo PB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

41'

46'

46'

46'

Lucas Siqueira← Bruno Leite

46'

Bruno Bispo← Ytalo

46'

Rodrigo Alves← Pedro Vitor

50'

54'

61'

63'

65'

Matheus Anjos← Raimar

65'

Dudu

67'

Iranilson← Erick

76'

Kelvin← Jáderson

76'

Ribamar← Paulinho Curuá

77'

Henrique DouradoPenalty

Botafogo4-3-3

Remo3-4-3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Evaristo Piza

46'▲Caio Alan←▼Wallace

46'▲Dudu←▼Vinícius Leite

46'▲Lucas Siqueira←▼Bruno Leite

63'▲Gabriel Lima←▼Sillas

67'▲Iranilson←▼Erick

Botafogo PB substitutes

AlanDuduSiqueiraLimaIranilsonDouglasElvinhoLídioGonçalvesSantosRomércioViana

Manager: Rodrigo Santana

46'▲Bruno Bispo←▼Ytalo

46'▲Rodrigo Alves←▼Pedro Vitor

65'▲Matheus Anjos←▼Raimar

76'▲Kelvin←▼Jáderson

76'▲Ribamar←▼Paulinho Curuá

Remo substitutes

BispoAlvesAnjosKelvinRibamarLangAdssonCachoeiraRobertAntônioVidal