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Botafogo PB vs Potiguar Mossoró — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Potiguar Mossoró
Potiguar Mossoró
1/14/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · 2nd Qualifying RoundEstádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Botafogo PB48%
×Draw26%
Potiguar Mossoró26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.50
Potiguar Mossoró
1.02

Botafogo PB creates 47% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.32
Potiguar Mossoró
1.33

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.72
Potiguar Mossoró
1.67

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Potiguar Mossoró+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Potiguar Mossoró →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
74%
Botafogo PB or Potiguar Mossoró
74%
Draw or Potiguar Mossoró
52%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
24%
Potiguar Mossoró wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
78%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
44%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
19%
Potiguar Mossoró 1+ goals
64%
Potiguar Mossoró 2+ goals
27%
Potiguar Mossoró 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
65%
Potiguar Mossoró (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Potiguar Mossoró away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.32 + Potiguar Mossoró defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Potiguar Mossoró attack 1.33 + Botafogo PB defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
48%
level
26%
Potiguar Mossoró scores more
26%

Botafogo PB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: Botafogo PB 1–1 Potiguar Mossoró

Botafogo PB and Potiguar Mossoró drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.