Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botafogo PB vs Nacional de Patos — League #603 2026

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nacional de Patos
Nacional de Patos
2/19/2024League #603League #603 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Botafogo PB82%
×Draw12%
Nacional de Patos6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
2.98
Nacional de Patos
0.70

Botafogo PB creates 326% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
4.20
Nacional de Patos
1.00

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.40
Nacional de Patos
1.75

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Nacional de Patos+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Nacional de Patos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
94%
Botafogo PB or Nacional de Patos
88%
Draw or Nacional de Patos
18%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
63%
Nacional de Patos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
95%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
79%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
56%
Nacional de Patos 1+ goals
50%
Nacional de Patos 2+ goals
16%
Nacional de Patos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
93%
Nacional de Patos (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Nacional de Patos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 4.20 + Nacional de Patos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Nacional de Patos attack 1.00 + Botafogo PB defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
82%
level
12%
Nacional de Patos scores more
6%

Botafogo PB at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo PB vs Nacional de Patos

Botafogo PB beat Nacional de Patos 2-0 in League #603 on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.