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Botafogo PB vs Fortaleza EC — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
2/15/2022Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 5Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Botafogo PB40%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza EC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.18
Fortaleza EC
1.02

Botafogo PB creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.32
Fortaleza EC
1.33

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.72
Fortaleza EC
1.03

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
69%
Botafogo PB or Fortaleza EC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
60%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
17%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
69%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
33%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
12%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
64%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
27%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
56%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.32 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fortaleza EC attack 1.33 + Botafogo PB defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
40%
level
29%
Fortaleza EC scores more
31%

Botafogo PB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botafogo PB 1 – 1 Fortaleza EC

Botafogo PB and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.