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Botafogo PB vs 4 de Julho — Copa do Nordeste 2020

Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
2/27/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Botafogo PB44%
×Draw28%
4 de Julho28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo PB
1.29
4 de Julho
0.98

Botafogo PB creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

creates per match

Botafogo PB
1.32
4 de Julho
1.25

allows per match

Botafogo PB
0.72
4 de Julho
1.25

finishing

Botafogo PB+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo PB ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botafogo PB or draw
72%
Botafogo PB or 4 de Julho
72%
Draw or 4 de Julho
56%

Winning margin

Botafogo PB wins by 2+
20%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botafogo PB 1+ goals
72%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
37%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
14%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
62%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
26%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
61%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo PB at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo PB attack 1.32 + 4 de Julho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

4 de Julho attack 1.25 + Botafogo PB defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Botafogo PB scores more
44%
level
28%
4 de Julho scores more
28%

Botafogo PB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Botafogo PB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botafogo PB 0 – 0 4 de Julho

Botafogo PB and 4 de Julho drew 0-0 in Copa do Nordeste on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in João Pessoa, Paraíba.