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Botafogo BA vs Juazeiro BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
FT
2 – 1
Juazeiro BA
Juazeiro BA
6/29/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Botafogo BA43%
×Draw29%
Juazeiro BA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo BA
1.26
Juazeiro BA
0.96

Botafogo BA creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Botafogo BA
1.63
Juazeiro BA
0.67

allows per match

Botafogo BA
1.25
Juazeiro BA
0.89

finishing

Botafogo BA+0.00on par
Juazeiro BA+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo BA ↓

Juazeiro BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Botafogo BA or draw
72%
Botafogo BA or Juazeiro BA
71%
Draw or Juazeiro BA
57%

Winning margin

Botafogo BA wins by 2+
19%
Juazeiro BA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botafogo BA 1+ goals
72%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
36%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
13%
Juazeiro BA 1+ goals
62%
Juazeiro BA 2+ goals
25%
Juazeiro BA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
60%
Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo BA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Juazeiro BA away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo BA attack 1.63 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Juazeiro BA attack 0.67 + Botafogo BA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botafogo BA scores more
43%
level
29%
Juazeiro BA scores more
28%

Botafogo BA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Botafogo BA 2–1 Juazeiro BA

Botafogo BA beat Juazeiro BA 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte in Senhor do Bonfim, Bahia.