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Botafogo BA vs Grapiuna Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
FT
0 – 1
Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
7/4/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Botafogo BA49%
×Draw26%
Grapiuna Itabuna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo BA
1.54
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.05

Botafogo BA creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 26 away

creates per match

Botafogo BA
1.63
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.85

allows per match

Botafogo BA
1.25
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.46

finishing

Botafogo BA+0.00on par
Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo BA ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Botafogo BA or draw
74%
Botafogo BA or Grapiuna Itabuna
74%
Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna
51%

Winning margin

Botafogo BA wins by 2+
25%
Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Botafogo BA 1+ goals
79%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
45%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
20%
Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
65%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
28%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
65%
Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo BA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo BA attack 1.63 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Botafogo BA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botafogo BA scores more
49%
level
26%
Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
26%

Botafogo BA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Botafogo BA 0–1 Grapiuna Itabuna

Grapiuna Itabuna beat Botafogo BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte in Senhor do Bonfim, Bahia.