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Botafogo BA vs Flamengo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
FT
1 – 1
Flamengo BA
Flamengo BA
7/10/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 11Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Botafogo BA51%
×Draw26%
Flamengo BA23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo BA
1.51
Flamengo BA
0.93

Botafogo BA creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Botafogo BA
1.63
Flamengo BA
0.60

allows per match

Botafogo BA
1.25
Flamengo BA
1.40

finishing

Botafogo BA+0.00on par
Flamengo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo BA ↓

Flamengo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo BA or draw
77%
Botafogo BA or Flamengo BA
74%
Draw or Flamengo BA
49%

Winning margin

Botafogo BA wins by 2+
26%
Flamengo BA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Botafogo BA 1+ goals
78%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
44%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
19%
Flamengo BA 1+ goals
61%
Flamengo BA 2+ goals
24%
Flamengo BA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
69%
Flamengo BA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo BA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Flamengo BA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo BA attack 1.63 + Flamengo BA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Flamengo BA attack 0.60 + Botafogo BA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botafogo BA scores more
51%
level
26%
Flamengo BA scores more
23%

Botafogo BA at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo BA vs Flamengo BA

Botafogo BA and Flamengo BA drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Pedro Amorim Duarte in Senhor do Bonfim, Bahia.