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Botafogo BA vs ABPN Canaã — Baiano - 2 2019

Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
FT
2 – 2
ABPN Canaã
ABPN Canaã
5/28/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Jodilton Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Botafogo BA56%
×Draw24%
ABPN Canaã21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo BA
1.73
ABPN Canaã
0.95

Botafogo BA creates 82% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Botafogo BA
1.63
ABPN Canaã
0.64

allows per match

Botafogo BA
1.25
ABPN Canaã
1.82

finishing

Botafogo BA+0.00on par
ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo BA ↓

ABPN Canaã →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Botafogo BA or draw
79%
Botafogo BA or ABPN Canaã
76%
Draw or ABPN Canaã
44%

Winning margin

Botafogo BA wins by 2+
31%
ABPN Canaã wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Botafogo BA 1+ goals
82%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
52%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
25%
ABPN Canaã 1+ goals
61%
ABPN Canaã 2+ goals
25%
ABPN Canaã 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
73%
ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo BA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo BA attack 1.63 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Botafogo BA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Botafogo BA scores more
56%
level
24%
ABPN Canaã scores more
21%

Botafogo BA at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo BA vs ABPN Canaã

Botafogo BA and ABPN Canaã drew 2-2 in Baiano - 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Jodilton Souza in Feira de Santana, Bahia.