Boston River 3–1 Zamora FC: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zamora FC

E. Gómez 64'

M. Acuña 55'

L. Costa 23'

C. Magallán 75'

2/10/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 1st RoundEstadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boston River62%

×Draw24%

Zamora FC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchZamora FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.63

Boston River

1.63

Zamora FC

0.63

Boston River creates 159% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.25

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Boston River

1.00

Zamora FC

1.00

allows per match

Boston River

0.25

Zamora FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Zamora FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

86%

Boston River or Zamora FC

76%

Draw or Zamora FC

38%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

34%

Zamora FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

80%

Boston River 2+ goals

48%

Boston River 3+ goals

22%

Zamora FC 1+ goals

47%

Zamora FC 2+ goals

13%

Zamora FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

81%

Zamora FC (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.00 + Zamora FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Zamora FC attack 1.00 + Boston River defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Boston River scores more

62%

level

24%

Zamora FC scores more

14%

Boston River at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Urretaviscaya

Boston River · M

8.3

Match Events

21'

Emiliano Sosa

23'

L. Costa↳ J. Urretaviscaya

46'

C. Martínez← Y. Requena

53'

Giovanni Dolgetta

55'

M. Acuña↳ J. Urretaviscaya

56'

57'

58'

58'

58'

Martín Fernández Benítez← J. Urretaviscaya

64'

E. Gómez↳ C. Olivera

67'

J. Velásquez← A. Hernández

72'

José Velásquez

73'

L. Suhr← C. Olivera

73'

A. Machado← M. Acuña

73'

L. Vargas← J. Ramírez

75'

78'

80'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BostonZamora

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots14

6Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots14

8On Target3

7Off Target7

3Blocked4

13Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

474Total Passes272

393Accurate Passes187

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Boston River vs Zamora FC

Boston River beat Zamora FC 3-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on February 10, 2023.

Goals: L. Costa (23'), M. Acuña (55'), E. Gómez (64'), C. Magallán (75').

Boston River controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

Boston River vs Zamora FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Boston River vs Zamora FC