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Boston River vs Progreso — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Boston River
Boston River
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Progreso
Progreso
M. Zaragoza 79', 24'
D. Scotti 21'
A. Silva 76'
J. Gottesman 69' (pen)
4/22/2018Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Round 13Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas (Las Piedras)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Boston River41%
×Draw26%
Progreso33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.42
Progreso
1.25

Boston River creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 62 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Progreso
1.21

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Progreso
1.66

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
67%
Boston River or Progreso
74%
Draw or Progreso
59%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
19%
Progreso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
76%
Boston River 2+ goals
41%
Boston River 3+ goals
17%
Progreso 1+ goals
71%
Progreso 2+ goals
36%
Progreso 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
55%
Progreso (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Progreso defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Progreso attack 1.21 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boston River scores more
41%
level
26%
Progreso scores more
33%

Boston River at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. Scotti
24'
M. Zaragoza
69'
J. GottesmanPenalty
76'
A. Silva
79'
M. Zaragoza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Progreso

Boston River beat Progreso 3-2 in Primera División - Apertura on April 22, 2018.

Goals: D. Scotti (21'), M. Zaragoza (24', 79'), J. Gottesman (69' pen), A. Silva (76').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas (Las Piedras).