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Boston River vs Nacional Potosí — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Boston River
Boston River
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
4/22/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Boston River57%
×Draw20%
Nacional Potosí23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
2.30
Nacional Potosí
1.43

Boston River creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.71
Nacional Potosí
0.56

allows per match

Boston River
2.29
Nacional Potosí
2.89

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
77%
Boston River or Nacional Potosí
80%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
43%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
35%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
90%
Boston River 2+ goals
67%
Boston River 3+ goals
40%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
76%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
42%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
71%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.71 + Nacional Potosí defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.30

Nacional Potosí attack 0.56 + Boston River defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Boston River scores more
57%
level
20%
Nacional Potosí scores more
23%

Boston River at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Boston River 2–1 Nacional Potosí

Boston River beat Nacional Potosí 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.