Boston River 3–2 Juventud: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Juventud

6/2/2025

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 2Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boston River41%

×Draw25%

Juventud34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchJuventud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

Boston River

1.47

Juventud

1.31

Boston River creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 29 away

1.18

creates per match

1.34

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Boston River

1.18

Juventud

1.34

allows per match

Boston River

1.29

Juventud

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Juventud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Juventud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

66%

Boston River or Juventud

75%

Draw or Juventud

59%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

20%

Juventud wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

77%

Boston River 2+ goals

43%

Boston River 3+ goals

18%

Juventud 1+ goals

73%

Juventud 2+ goals

38%

Juventud 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

55%

Juventud (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Juventud away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Juventud defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Juventud attack 1.34 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boston River scores more

41%

level

25%

Juventud scores more

34%

Boston River at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff