Boston River 0–0 Huracan: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huracan

2/23/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 2nd RoundEstadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boston River62%

×Draw31%

Huracan7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchHuracan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.23

Boston River

1.20

Huracan

0.23

Boston River creates 422% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.20

0.25

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Boston River

1.00

Huracan

0.20

allows per match

Boston River

0.25

Huracan

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No86
Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Huracan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–029%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–14%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (29%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

17%83%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

93%

Boston River or Huracan

69%

Draw or Huracan

38%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

29%

Huracan wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

70%

Boston River 2+ goals

34%

Boston River 3+ goals

12%

Huracan 1+ goals

21%

Huracan 2+ goals

2%

Huracan 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

90%

Huracan (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

8%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.00 + Huracan defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Huracan attack 0.20 + Boston River defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Boston River scores more

62%

level

31%

Huracan scores more

7%

Boston River at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Silva

Boston River · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

J. Gauto

47'

F. Tobio

55'

J. Acevedo

60'

G. F. Allala Menendez

61'

N. Cordero← J. Gauto

63'

A. G. Benitez

71'

G. Sauro

73'

L. Suhr← J. Urretaviscaya

75'

W. Mazzantti← G. Gudiño

83'

B. Barja← M. Acuña

83'

S. Luján← J. Acevedo

84'

J. García← M. Cóccaro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BostonHuracan

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots20

4Corners7

5Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots20

4On Target6

6Off Target8

2Blocked6

7Inside Box10

5Outside Box10

Passing

48%Possession52%

406Total Passes422

303Accurate Passes322

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0