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Boston River vs Fenix — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fenix
Fenix
9/6/2020Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Boston River37%
×Draw27%
Fenix36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.28
Fenix
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Fenix
1.20

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Fenix
1.38

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Fenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
64%
Boston River or Fenix
73%
Draw or Fenix
63%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
16%
Fenix wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
72%
Boston River 2+ goals
37%
Boston River 3+ goals
14%
Fenix 1+ goals
71%
Fenix 2+ goals
36%
Fenix 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
51%
Fenix (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Fenix defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fenix attack 1.20 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boston River scores more
37%
level
27%
Fenix scores more
36%

Boston River at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 0–0 Fenix

Boston River and Fenix drew 0-0 in Primera División - Apertura on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Ciudad de Florida.