Boston River 1–1 Danubio: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Danubio

Juan Manuel Gutiérrez 56'

Sebastián Fernández 20'

6/14/2025

Primera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 4Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Boston River38%

×Draw28%

Danubio35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchDanubio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Boston River

1.23

Danubio

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 80 away

1.18

creates per match

1.05

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Boston River

1.18

Danubio

1.05

allows per match

Boston River

1.29

Danubio

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Danubio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Danubio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

65%

Boston River or Danubio

72%

Draw or Danubio

62%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

16%

Danubio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

71%

Boston River 2+ goals

35%

Boston River 3+ goals

13%

Danubio 1+ goals

69%

Danubio 2+ goals

33%

Danubio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

52%

Danubio (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Danubio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Danubio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Danubio attack 1.05 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boston River scores more

38%

level

28%

Danubio scores more

35%

Boston River at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

20'

32'

42'

42'

45+2'

45'

46'

Valentin Adamo← Mauricio Vera

46'

Lucas Lemos← Agustín Albarracín

50'

Sergio Núñez← Evelio Cardozo

50'

Luis Femia← Sebastián Fernández

56'

Juan Manuel Gutiérrez

66'

Joaquín Fernández← Lucas Sanseviero

68'

Fredy Noguera← Baltasar Barcia

68'

Gustavo Viera← Guillermo López

69'

Agustín Amado

85'

Facundo Muñoa← Juan Manuel Gutiérrez

88'

Maximiliano Perg← Renzo Rabino

88'

Facundo Balatti← Mateo Peralta

90+2'

Gustavo Viera

Boston4-4-2

Danubio4-4-2

11

▼

Sansevier

30

⚽

▼

Fernández

6

Sosa

19

Romero

10

▼

Peralta

38

▼

Cardozo

8

▼

23

2

27

1

1

22

14

23

31

10

32

▼

Barcia

8

▼

Vera

21

▼

López

24

⚽

▼

Gutiérrez

70

▼

Albarrací

46'▲Valentin Adamo←▼Mauricio Vera

46'▲Lucas Lemos←▼Agustín Albarracín

68'▲Fredy Noguera←▼Baltasar Barcia

68'▲Gustavo Viera←▼Guillermo López

85'▲Facundo Muñoa←▼Juan Manuel Gutiérrez

Boston River substitutes

5Lemos99Adamo18Viera11Noguera26Muñoa33Hernández4Gómez16Quiroga9Anello25Chiappini

Manager: J. Olivera

50'▲Sergio Núñez←▼Evelio Cardozo

50'▲Luis Femia←▼Sebastián Fernández

66'▲Joaquín Fernández←▼Lucas Sanseviero

88'▲Maximiliano Perg←▼Renzo Rabino

88'▲Facundo Balatti←▼Mateo Peralta

Danubio substitutes

28Femia9Núñez14Fernández24Perg40Balatti12Rio36Sosa18Azambuja15Roldan26Piriz

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 1–1 Danubio

Boston River and Danubio drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Sebastián Fernández (20'), Juan Manuel Gutiérrez (56').

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Ciudad de Florida.

Boston River vs Danubio — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 1–1 Danubio