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Boston River vs Bahia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Boston River
Boston River
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bahia
Bahia
3/7/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundParque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boston River48%
×Draw38%
Bahia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
0.92
Bahia
0.38

Boston River creates 142% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.00
Bahia
0.50

allows per match

Boston River
0.25
Bahia
0.83

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

81%No
  • No81
  • Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–027%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
73%27%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
85%
Boston River or Bahia
62%
Draw or Bahia
52%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
18%
Bahia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
60%
Boston River 2+ goals
23%
Boston River 3+ goals
7%
Bahia 1+ goals
32%
Bahia 2+ goals
6%
Bahia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
76%
Bahia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.00 + Bahia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Bahia attack 0.50 + Boston River defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boston River scores more
48%
level
38%
Bahia scores more
15%

Boston River at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Bahia

Boston River and Bahia drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.