Boston Legacy W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Boston Legacy W45%
Chicago Red Stars W31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Boston Legacy W creates 25% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Boston Legacy W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Boston Legacy W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches
Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Boston Legacy W attack 1.40 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64
Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Boston Legacy W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Boston Legacy W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Angel City W
Washington Spirit W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC WBoston Legacy W
Kansas City W
San Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals WChicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Boston Legacy W host Chicago Red Stars W on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 00:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
Boston Legacy W 2 – 0 Chicago Red Stars W
Boston Legacy W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 in NWSL Women on July 11, 2026.
Goals: Amanda Gutierres (22' pen), N. Prince (58').
The match was played at Centreville Bank Stadium in Pawtucket.