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Boston City U20 vs Ipatinga U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Boston City U20
Boston City U20
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Ipatinga U20
Ipatinga U20
P. Sousa 86'
C. De Souza 80'
H. Ferreira 79'
N. Da Silva 45+1', 4'
Guilherme Martins 20'
K. Vilela 59'
6/1/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Boston City FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Boston City U2084%
×Draw10%
Ipatinga U206%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston City U20
3.31
Ipatinga U20
0.80

Boston City U20 creates 314% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Boston City U20
2.05
Ipatinga U20
0.43

allows per match

Boston City U20
1.18
Ipatinga U20
4.57

finishing

Boston City U20+0.00on par
Ipatinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston City U20 ↓

Ipatinga U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Boston City U20 or draw
94%
Boston City U20 or Ipatinga U20
90%
Draw or Ipatinga U20
16%

Winning margin

Boston City U20 wins by 2+
66%
Ipatinga U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Boston City U20 1+ goals
96%
Boston City U20 2+ goals
83%
Boston City U20 3+ goals
62%
Ipatinga U20 1+ goals
55%
Ipatinga U20 2+ goals
19%
Ipatinga U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boston City U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Ipatinga U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston City U20 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Ipatinga U20 away — creates 0.43, concedes 4.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston City U20 attack 2.05 + Ipatinga U20 defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.31

Ipatinga U20 attack 0.43 + Boston City U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Boston City U20 scores more
84%
level
10%
Ipatinga U20 scores more
6%

Boston City U20 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Boston City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
N. Da Silva
20'
Guilherme Martins
45+1'
N. Da Silva
59'
K. Vilela
79'
H. Ferreira
80'
C. De Souza
86'
P. Sousa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boston City U20 6 – 1 Ipatinga U20

Boston City U20 beat Ipatinga U20 6-1 in Mineiro U20 on June 1, 2024.

Goals: N. Da Silva (4', 45+1'), Guilherme Martins (20'), K. Vilela (59'), H. Ferreira (79'), C. De Souza (80'), P. Sousa (86').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Boston City FC in Manhuaçu, Minas Gerais.