Valur Reykjavik 1–0 IA Akranes: Result & Stats

Valur Reykjavik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IA Akranes

S. Lárusson 60'

10/1/2016

Úrvalsdeild · Round 22Vodafonevöllurinn (Valsvöllur) (Reykjavík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Valur Reykjavik58%

×Draw20%

IA Akranes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchIA Akranes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.34

Valur Reykjavik

2.27

IA Akranes

1.34

Valur Reykjavik creates 69% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 82 away

2.33

creates per match

1.33

1.35

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Valur Reykjavik

2.33

IA Akranes

1.33

allows per match

Valur Reykjavik

1.35

IA Akranes

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valur Reykjavik+0.00on par

IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valur Reykjavik ↓

IA Akranes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Valur Reykjavik or draw

78%

Valur Reykjavik or IA Akranes

80%

Draw or IA Akranes

42%

Winning margin

Valur Reykjavik wins by 2+

36%

IA Akranes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Valur Reykjavik 1+ goals

90%

Valur Reykjavik 2+ goals

66%

Valur Reykjavik 3+ goals

39%

IA Akranes 1+ goals

74%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

39%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

72%

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.21 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valur Reykjavik attack 2.33 + IA Akranes defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

IA Akranes attack 1.33 + Valur Reykjavik defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Valur Reykjavik scores more

58%

level

20%

IA Akranes scores more

22%

Valur Reykjavik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Valur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

G. Lýdsson← H. Sigurðsson

60'

S. Lárusson

61'

A. Gudjónsson← S. Þórðarson

61'

T. Haraldsson← S. Þorsteinsson

71'

N. Hansen← A. Adolphsson

82'

A. Sigurdsson← I. Williamson

86'

D. Bergsson← K. Halldórsson