Bossekop 1–2 Gjelleråsen: Result & Stats

Bossekop

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Gjelleråsen

5/8/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bossekop26%

×Draw20%

Gjelleråsen54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BossekopExpected goals in this matchGjelleråsen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.31

Bossekop

1.57

Gjelleråsen

2.31

Gjelleråsen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

2.77

1.85

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bossekop

1.77

Gjelleråsen

2.77

allows per match

Bossekop

1.85

Gjelleråsen

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bossekop+0.00on par

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bossekop ↓

Gjelleråsen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bossekop or draw

46%

Bossekop or Gjelleråsen

80%

Draw or Gjelleråsen

74%

Winning margin

Bossekop wins by 2+

12%

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Bossekop 1+ goals

79%

Bossekop 2+ goals

46%

Bossekop 3+ goals

21%

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals

90%

Gjelleråsen 2+ goals

67%

Gjelleråsen 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Bossekop (draw refunded)

33%

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bossekop at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bossekop attack 1.77 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Gjelleråsen attack 2.77 + Bossekop defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bossekop scores more

26%

level

20%

Gjelleråsen scores more

54%

Gjelleråsen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff