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Bosporus vs FC Basel 1893 — Schweizer Cup 2019

Bosporus
Bosporus
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
9/16/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · 2nd RoundSportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bosporus2%
×Draw4%
FC Basel 189394%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosporus
0.63
FC Basel 1893
4.70

FC Basel 1893 creates 646% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bosporus
0.25
FC Basel 1893
3.89

allows per match

Bosporus
5.50
FC Basel 1893
1.00

finishing

Bosporus+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosporus ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–310%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Bosporus or draw
6%
Bosporus or FC Basel 1893
96%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
98%

Winning margin

Bosporus wins by 2+
0%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
84%

Team goals

Bosporus 1+ goals
47%
Bosporus 2+ goals
13%
Bosporus 3+ goals
3%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
99%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
94%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
81%

Draw no bet

Bosporus (draw refunded)
2%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosporus at home — creates 0.25, concedes 5.50 · 4 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 3.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosporus attack 0.25 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

FC Basel 1893 attack 3.89 + Bosporus defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Bosporus scores more
2%
level
4%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
94%

FC Basel 1893 at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bosporus vs FC Basel 1893

FC Basel 1893 beat Bosporus 8-0 in Schweizer Cup on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wyler Hauptplatz in Bern.