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Bospor Bohumín vs Vratimov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Vratimov
Vratimov
9/7/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bospor Bohumín52%
×Draw23%
Vratimov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
1.88
Vratimov
1.25

Bospor Bohumín creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Vratimov
1.40

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Vratimov
1.56

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
75%
Bospor Bohumín or Vratimov
77%
Draw or Vratimov
48%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
29%
Vratimov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
85%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
56%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
29%
Vratimov 1+ goals
71%
Vratimov 2+ goals
36%
Vratimov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
67%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Vratimov away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Vratimov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Vratimov attack 1.40 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
52%
level
23%
Vratimov scores more
25%

Bospor Bohumín at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bospor Bohumín vs Vratimov

Bospor Bohumín beat Vratimov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bohumín in Bohumín.