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Bospor Bohumín vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
CANC
14:30
Třinec II
Třinec II
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bospor Bohumín50%
×Draw20%
Třinec II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
2.34
Třinec II
1.79

Bospor Bohumín creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
70%
Bospor Bohumín or Třinec II
80%
Draw or Třinec II
50%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
30%
Třinec II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
90%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
67%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
41%
Třinec II 1+ goals
83%
Třinec II 2+ goals
53%
Třinec II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
63%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
50%
level
20%
Třinec II scores more
30%

Bospor Bohumín at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bospor Bohumín face Třinec II (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Bospor Bohumín hosting Třinec II. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bospor Bohumín host Třinec II at Stadion Bohumín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.