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Bospor Bohumín vs Krnov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Krnov
Krnov
5/21/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bospor Bohumín71%
×Draw16%
Krnov13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
2.60
Krnov
1.01

Bospor Bohumín creates 157% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Krnov
0.93

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Krnov
3.02

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Krnov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Krnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
87%
Bospor Bohumín or Krnov
84%
Draw or Krnov
29%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
49%
Krnov wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
92%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
73%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
47%
Krnov 1+ goals
64%
Krnov 2+ goals
27%
Krnov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
85%
Krnov (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Krnov away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Krnov defence 3.02 → ÷2 → 2.60

Krnov attack 0.93 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
71%
level
16%
Krnov scores more
13%

Bospor Bohumín at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bospor Bohumín vs Krnov

Krnov beat Bospor Bohumín 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Bohumín in Bohumín.