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Bosnia-Herzegovina W vs Russia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Bosnia-Herzegovina W
Bosnia-Herzegovina W
CANC
16:00
Russia W
Russia W
2/22/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina W21%
×Draw27%
Russia W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina W
0.80
Russia W
1.43

Russia W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W
0.50
Russia W
1.48

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W
1.38
Russia W
1.09

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina W+0.00on par
Russia W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina W ↓

Russia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina W or draw
48%
Bosnia-Herzegovina W or Russia W
73%
Draw or Russia W
79%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina W wins by 2+
6%
Russia W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 1+ goals
55%
Bosnia-Herzegovina W 2+ goals
19%
Bosnia-Herzegovina W 3+ goals
5%
Russia W 1+ goals
76%
Russia W 2+ goals
42%
Russia W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina W (draw refunded)
29%
Russia W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Russia W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W attack 0.50 + Russia W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.80

Russia W attack 1.48 + Bosnia-Herzegovina W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina W scores more
21%
level
27%
Russia W scores more
52%

Russia W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Russia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bosnia-Herzegovina W host Russia W

February 22, 2022: Bosnia-Herzegovina W take on Russia W in Friendlies Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bosnia-Herzegovina W host Russia W at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.