Bosnia-Herzegovina W 0–3 Philippines W

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

FT

0 – 3

Philippines W

6/23/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Sportski Centar Terme Čatež

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina W19%

×Draw24%

Philippines W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina WExpected goals in this matchPhilippines W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.66

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

0.84

Philippines W

1.66

Philippines W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

0.50

creates per match

1.94

1.38

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

0.50

Philippines W

1.94

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W

1.38

Philippines W

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina W+0.00on par

Philippines W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina W ↓

Philippines W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina W or draw

43%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W or Philippines W

76%

Draw or Philippines W

81%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina W wins by 2+

6%

Philippines W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 1+ goals

57%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 2+ goals

21%

Bosnia-Herzegovina W 3+ goals

5%

Philippines W 1+ goals

81%

Philippines W 2+ goals

49%

Philippines W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina W (draw refunded)

25%

Philippines W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Philippines W away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina W attack 0.50 + Philippines W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.84

Philippines W attack 1.94 + Bosnia-Herzegovina W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina W scores more

19%

level

24%

Philippines W scores more

57%

Philippines W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Philippines W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff