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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland — Euro Championship 2024

Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Ireland
Northern Irelandadvanced
R. Krunic 14'
N. McGinn 53'
10/8/2020Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Play-offs Path B - Semi-FinalsStadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina61%
×Draw19%
Northern Ireland20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.46
Northern Ireland
1.36

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.60
Northern Ireland
1.33

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.40
Northern Ireland
2.33

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw
80%
Bosnia & Herzegovina or Northern Ireland
81%
Draw or Northern Ireland
39%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
40%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
91%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
70%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
44%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
74%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
39%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
75%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 2.60 + Northern Ireland defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
61%
level
19%
Northern Ireland scores more
20%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Miralem PjanićBosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina · M
7.6

Match Events

14'
R. Krunic↳ B. Cipetic
20'
A. Hadziahmetovic
47'
S. Kolasinac
53'
N. McGinn
73'
C. Evans← G. Whyte
82'
N. McGinn← J. Jones
83'
A. Hadziahmetovic← A. Gojak
88'
R. Krunic← D. Hotic
90+3'
J. Magennis← K. Lafferty
90+3'
P. McNair← J. Thompson
100'
M. Pjanic
106'
G. Cimirot← S. Loncar
108'
S. Davis
118'
S. Kolasinac← H. Hajradinovic
120+1'
J. Jones← C. Washington
120+1'
J. Thompson← L. Boyce

Possession

59%Bosnia

Shots

20Bosnia

Pass accuracy

53%Bosnia

Statistics

BosniaNorthern
Overview
59%Possession41%
20Total Shots13
9Corners7
15Fouls18
Shots
20Total Shots13
6On Target3
9Off Target4
5Blocked6
13Inside Box9
7Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
653Total Passes437
549Accurate Passes326
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Northern Ireland

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Northern Ireland drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on October 8, 2020.

Goals: R. Krunic (14'), N. McGinn (53').

Bosnia & Herzegovina controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo.