Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Luxembourg — Friendlies 2026

Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
E. Džeko 86'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina44%
×Draw37%
Luxembourg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.90
Luxembourg
0.47

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 91% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.25
Luxembourg
0.55

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.38
Luxembourg
1.55

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Under
  • Under84
  • Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–112%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
40%60%2.5
16%84%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw
82%
Bosnia & Herzegovina or Luxembourg
63%
Draw or Luxembourg
56%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
16%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
59%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
23%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
6%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
37%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
8%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
71%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.25 + Luxembourg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.90

Luxembourg attack 0.55 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
44%
level
37%
Luxembourg scores more
18%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Vahid Selimović
17'
L. Jans← M. Chanot
46'
E. Ćivić← J. Gazibegović
46'
H. Miličević← A. Ahmedhodzic
46'
M. Stevanović← A. Dedić
46'
V. Thill← D. Sinani
46'
D. Carlson← V. Selimović
49'
Dennis Hadžikadunić
57'
Vincent Thill
66'
L. Menalo← A. Nalić
66'
E. Džeko← S. Prevljak
66'
M. Martins← F. Bohnert
73'
Y. Borges Sanches← S. Thill
82'
S. Saničanin← S. Kolašinac
86'
E. Džeko
90+4'
Gerson Rodrigues

Possession

46%Bosnia

Shots

11Bosnia

Statistics

BosniaLuxembourg
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots3
2Corners3
20Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots3
6On Target1
5Off Target2
Passing
46%Possession54%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Luxembourg

Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Luxembourg 1-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: E. Džeko (86').

Luxembourg controlled possession (54%) and registered 3 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.