Bosnia & Herzegovina 5–0 Liechtenstein

Bosnia & Herzegovina

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Liechtenstein

A. Gojak 89', 11'

E. Višća 87'

E. Džeko 85'

A. Malin 80' (OG)

9/5/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina82%

×Draw12%

Liechtenstein7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goals in this matchLiechtenstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

0.80

Bosnia & Herzegovina

3.10

Liechtenstein

0.80

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 288% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

0.20

1.40

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

2.60

Liechtenstein

0.20

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.40

Liechtenstein

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Liechtenstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw

93%

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Liechtenstein

88%

Draw or Liechtenstein

18%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

63%

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

95%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

81%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

58%

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

55%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

19%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

92%

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.20, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 2.60 + Liechtenstein defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.10

Liechtenstein attack 0.20 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

82%

level

12%

Liechtenstein scores more

7%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Gojak

Bosnia & Herzegovina · M

9.2

Match Events

11'

A. Gojak↳ E. Džeko

25'

M. Mihojević← T. Šunjić

55'

H. Duljević← D. Milošević

64'

S. Wolfinger← L. Meier

69'

Martin Büchel

74'

A. Sele← R. Gubser

76'

Aron Sele

80'

A. MalinOwn goal

83'

S. Lončar← M. Pjanić

85'

D. Brändle← S. Wieser

85'

E. Džeko↳ A. Gojak

87'

E. Višća

89'

A. Gojak↳ H. Duljević

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BosniaLiechtenstein

Overview

67%Possession33%

28Total Shots8

7Corners2

7Fouls10

Shots

28Total Shots8

14On Target2

7Off Target5

7Blocked1

18Inside Box2

10Outside Box6

Passing

67%Possession33%

674Total Passes321

605Accurate Passes245

90%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1