Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–1 Armenia: Result & Stats

Bosnia & Herzegovina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Armenia

D. Milošević 80'

R. Krunić 33'

H. Mkhitaryan 90+3' (pen)

3/23/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina72%

×Draw14%

Armenia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.46

1.53

Bosnia & Herzegovina

3.46

Armenia

1.53

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 126% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.60

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

2.60

Armenia

1.67

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.40

Armenia

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw

86%

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Armenia

86%

Draw or Armenia

28%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

54%

Armenia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

97%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

85%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

65%

Armenia 1+ goals

78%

Armenia 2+ goals

45%

Armenia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

84%

Armenia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 2.60 + Armenia defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.46

Armenia attack 1.67 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

72%

level

14%

Armenia scores more

14%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pjanić

Bosnia & Herzegovina · M

9.1

Match Events

33'

R. Krunić↳ M. Pjanić

40'

Eldar Ćivić

65'

D. Milošević← G. Zakarić

67'

B. Briasco← A. Karapetyan

67'

E. Babayan← S. Adamyan

80'

D. Milošević↳ E. Višća

81'

A. Özbiliz← G. Ghazaryan

83'

A. Gojak← R. Krunić

87'

E. Koljič← E. Džeko

90+3'

H. MkhitaryanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BosniaArmenia

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots7

10Corners2

9Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target3

8Blocked2

13Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

657Total Passes306

580Accurate Passes238

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4