Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3–2 Sweden U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sweden U19

A. Bristrić 60'

A. Kahvić 34'

M. Šakota 23'

O. Vilhelmsson 45+2'

Y. Ayari 33'

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Stade Omnisports André Darrigade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1934%

×Draw24%

Sweden U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.59

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.41

Sweden U19

1.59

Sweden U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.10

creates per match

1.29

1.90

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.10

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.90

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or draw

58%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 or Sweden U19

76%

Draw or Sweden U19

66%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

15%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

76%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

41%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

17%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

80%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

47%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.10 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

34%

level

24%

Sweden U19 scores more

42%

Sweden U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

33'

34'

44'

45+2'

60'

64'

R. Smajic← E. Mehmedović

71'

M. Buljubašić← A. Krdžalić

72'

A. Qasem← E. Roback

72'

J. Erabi← W. Swedberg

72'

L. Nåvik← M. Björkqvist

79'

R. Bonde← S. Dahl

85'

J. Bångsbo← Y. Ayari

87'

E. Kulašin← A. Bristrić

87'

T. Ramić← M. Šakota

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Sweden

1

2

3

4

13

5

▼

Dahl

8

▼

Björkqvis

10

⚽

▼

Ayari

16

▼

Swedberg

7

▼

Roback

20

⚽

1

6

17

2

10

▼

Mehmedovi

16

Kapetanov

7

▼

Krdžalić

19

Sučić

9

⚽

Kahvić

15

⚽

▼

Šakota

18

⚽

▼

Bristrić

Manager: I. Barbarić

64'▲R. Smajic←▼E. Mehmedović

71'▲M. Buljubašić←▼A. Krdžalić

87'▲E. Kulašin←▼A. Bristrić

87'▲T. Ramić←▼M. Šakota

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

4Smajic8Buljubašić14Kulašin20Ramić3Musić5Prusina12Damjanović13Muharemović

Manager: M. Jelečak

72'▲A. Qasem←▼E. Roback

72'▲J. Erabi←▼W. Swedberg

72'▲L. Nåvik←▼M. Björkqvist

79'▲R. Bonde←▼S. Dahl

85'▲J. Bångsbo←▼Y. Ayari

Sweden U19 substitutes

11Qasem9Erabi6Nåvik15Bonde17Bångsbo18Karlin14Engdahl12Arvidsson

Match Recap: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Sweden U19

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 beat Sweden U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2022.

Goals: M. Šakota (23'), Y. Ayari (33'), A. Kahvić (34'), O. Vilhelmsson (45+2'), A. Bristrić (60').

The match was played at Stade Omnisports André Darrigade in Dax.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 vs Sweden U19